I’m Scared for Google’s Golden Goose

If we take 2000 as the year google search really took off, it’s been 22 years of Google dominating the information navigation space. 22 years - almost a quarter century. For comparison, Kodak, Blockbuster, Sears, and Barnes & Noble all had shorter stints at the top.

In the early days of the internet, finding information was a tedious and time-consuming task. Search engines like Yahoo, Altavista, and Ask Jeeves were the go-to options. Do you even remember what those sites looked like?

Enter Google, with its revolutionary algorithm that prioritized relevance that quickly dominated the search market. Google disrupted the old ways of finding information and forever changed the way we access the vast amount of data on the internet. For two decades, it sat on its golden goose and reaped those rewards - becoming a trillion-dollar company that sits in the top 3 of US companies by market cap.

But now, a new challenger has appeared over the horizon. You all know what I’m talking about. ChatGPT.

With a large chunk of my portfolio invested in GOOG, I am both terrified and intrigued at the same time.

If you’ve spent the last 50 days really putting ChatGPT through its paces, you understand.

I’ve:

• used chatGPT to quickly table movies similar to Spirited Away, asking it for columns for IMDB rating and runtime to quickly figure out what to watch on a Saturday night

• had it brainstorm gift ideas for my wife’s birthday, seeding it with things that she likes

• asked it to give me my next travel destination based on the cost of living, weather in February, average wifi speed, and cultural activities

• had it teach me how to add the correct javascript to a marketing data layer for conversion tracking

Instead of collating disparate pieces of information buried underneath SEO fluff, ChatGPT returns succinct info in easy-to-read formats in 10-20 seconds.

So how does this impact Google?

Well, I’ve diverted 90% of my question asking to ChatGPT. I now only use google search for information beyond ChatGPT’s scope - things after its 2021 training data cutoff.

Search is its golden goose. In 2021 it was 58% of its total revenue.

Source: https://www.oberlo.com/statistics/how-does-google-make-money 

Now, I’m confident that Google has something competitive brewing in its labs that the public just doesn't know about yet. There was that “sentient AI” after all. This is where I’m hoping GOOG can still make a comeback and start showing me some green in my TD Ameritrade app again.

I would be absolutely stunned if their 2023 roadmap didn’t have a P0 project for incorporating AI chat into google search.

What’s easier? For OpenAI to build a massive ad platform similar to Google Ads for query-based campaigns, or for Google to roll out some AI chat into search? I’d be betting on the latter.

The question is how they do it in a way that doesn’t choke the golden goose. The more queries you type - the better. The more succinct an answer, the fewer queries you type.

Search impressions go down. Less auction volume for keywords.

That’s before we even get to the UX piece of this. Search ads are front and center at the top. Everyone knows they don’t contain the answers you’re looking for.

But if I had to put my money on something - I’d bet that within the next 3 years, search advertising will be bidding on AI chat terms. And you know what? I bet they’ll be good ads! Imagine at the end of ChatGPT's response, it plugs 1 or 2 very helpful links based on what you’ve been discussing. Paid for by an advertiser.

ChatGPT will build AdGPT. Or Google will release an AI update. Or both.

PS. I wrote this using ChatGPT to help me with research.